Global | Publication | April 2024
A complex risk landscape
Ongoing war and civil unrest across the globe has continued this year, with instability arising from armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, protests in multiple cities across Europe connected with recession and domestic financial tensions, a declaration of a state of emergency in Ecuador and the disruption of shipping routes in the Red Sea linked to the conflict in Israel/Palestine.
The year of Democracy
It is also an election year in several countries, including the US, UK, South Africa and India, all large democratic nations with a history of active political protest. The outcome of these elections will have a profound effect on geopolitical ties, politics and the direction of ongoing global conflicts over (at least) the next half decade.
Amidst these geopolitical upheavals, an undercurrent of socio-economic challenges presents an escalating risk—social unrest spurred by contracting job markets, faltering economies, and widening disparities in wealth and income compounded by over-stretched and reducing public services.
The rise of AI
The rapid assimilation of artificial intelligence into various sectors has the potential to exacerbate social issues, as automation threatens to displace significant portions of the workforce. The interplay between technological advancement and economic disenfranchisement is thus emerging as a critical focal point for geopolitical risk, with the potential to significantly influence social stability and in turn geopolitics.
There is an intricate connection between global geopolitics and the business strategies and exposures of the Insurance and Reinsurance markets. As geopolitical landscapes evolve, so too do the risks and opportunities within the insurance sector. For insurance professionals, understanding these shifts is paramount, not only for navigating the immediate impacts on policy and coverage but also for strategizing long-term resilience and adaptability in a world where geopolitical stability can no longer be taken for granted. Insurance Foresight explores the emerging themes and trends that arise from geopolitical risk issues for the insurance sector.
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